WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.0N 137.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 455 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 45 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SYMMETRICAL
SYSTEM WITH A RAGGED BUT DEFINED 35-NM EYE. FEEDER BANDS ARE SLOWLY
UNRAVELING AND THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS WARMED UP. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN
THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MAJORITY OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED
DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE WEAKENED STATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS, AND STRONG
RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY THE INFLUX OF NEAR SURFACE COLD DRY AIR
FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   RJTD: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 90 KTS AT 300230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON MINDULLE WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
TRACK FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SLOWLY DEGRADE WITH CONTINUED COLD DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND
DECREASING SSTS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FURTHER POLEWARD. CONCURRENTLY, 
BY TAU 48, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND BY TAU 
72 WILL TRANSFORM INTO A STRONG GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN 
EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT APPROACHES THE SAKHALIN ISLAND. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH ETT, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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