WDIO31 PGTW 261500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING NR 010// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.5N 84.5E INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 329 NM SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 14 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), ANIMATED RADAR DATA, A 251021Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM KALINGAPATAM, INDIA ALL SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, APPROXIMATELY 15-20 NM TO THE EAST OF KALINGAPATAM. THE MICROWAVE DATA AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A CURVED BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH ITSELF REMAINS MOSTLY DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 40 KNOTS, ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY T2.5 ESTIMATES, AND A SURFACE PRESSURE READING FROM KALINGAPATAM OF 992 MB WHICH EQUATES TO 41 KNOTS USING THE WIND PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 49 KTS AT 260758Z CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 260915Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 28-29 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR KALINGAPATAM IMMINENTLY. ONCE ASHORE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND A FAIRLY RAPID CLIP, WHILE STEADILY WEAKENING, BEFORE DISSIPATING NO LATER THAN TAU 36. NOTABLY, GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING GFS, ECMWF, AND HWRF CONTINUE TO SHOW THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TC 03B CROSSING INDIA AND EMERGING INTO THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA NEAR TAU 72, THEN REINTENSIFYING. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE TO FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH// NNNN