WDIO31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.5N 86.0E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 281 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE INITIAL FRAMES OF VISIBLE IMAGERY AROUND THE 0200Z HOUR
INDICATED A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF SHEARED DEEP CONVECTION. 0600Z VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION HAD TUCKED UNDER THE
CIRRUS SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER AT
TIMELY 260540 GMI ENHANCED 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED VERY
CLEAR LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LLCC, DISPLACED
TO THE EAST OF THE CURVED BANDS OF MODERATE CONVECTION. THE
MICROWAVE DATA COMBINED WITH THE FIRST LOOKS AT THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM ON INDIAN RADAR LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD STEADY AT 40 KNOTS WITH
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE T2.5 CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH PGTW AND DEMS IN LIGHT OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER ADT
ESTIMATES OF T3.0. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AT
BEST, WITH LOW TO MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OFFSETTING MODERATE
TO STRONG DIFFLUENT WESTWARD OUTFLOW.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A
DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 260157Z
   CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 260315Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
WESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF A DEEP STR TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE
LANDFALL NORTH OF VISHAKHAPATNAM WITHIN THE NEXT 8-12 HOURS.
INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY AT 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE TAU
12 FORECAST POINT, HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
EXPERIENCE A SHORT-TERM INCREASE IN INTENSITY TO 45 KNOTS JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS (30C) ALONG THE
COAST AND FIGHTS OFF THE MODERATE SHEAR FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. ONCE
ASHORE THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF
CENTRAL INDIA, FULLY DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. MOST GLOBAL MODELS,
INCLUDING THE NAVGEM, ECMWF GFS, AND HWRF NOW AGREE THAT THE
REMNANTS OF TC 03B WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT
AND EMERGE OVER THE NORTH ARABIAN SEA BY AROUND TAU 72, AND
REINTENSIFY.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE CONTINUED EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET WHICH
REMAINS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS, NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS WELL FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
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