WDIO31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (GULAB) WARNING 
NR 008//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.3N 87.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 15 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
THE FIRST FEW FRAMES OF ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER, WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS PLACED BASED ON PGTW FIX, AND
SUPPORTED BY A 252312Z SSMIS PASS REVEALING THE LOW LEVEL CURVED
BANDING AS WELL AS AN EARLIER 252258Z NIGHTIME VISIBLE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WAS HELD AT 40 KNOTS, WHICH IS ABOVE T2.5 (35
KNOT) DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM DEMS AND PGTW, AND MAY BE GENEROUS
GIVEN THE NOW-AVAILABLE MSI.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE AND OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF
A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   DEMS: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 51 KTS AT 251957Z
   CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 260015Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
TRACKING PRIMARILY WESTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXTENSION OF THE DEEP
STR TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE INDIAN COASTLINE NORTH OF VISHAKHAPATNAM AROUND TAU 18. THE
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL, HOWEVER, THE MODERATE OUTFLOW
AND WARM SSTS MAY ALLOW 03B TO MAINTAIN ITS TROPICAL STORM
STATUS AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. ONCE ASHORE, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN TO THE NORTHWEST OF
VISHAKHAPATNAM, ALTHOUGH, SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING THE REMNANT
ENERGY MAY TRACK ACROSS THE CONTINENT AND RE-EMERGE OVER THE
ARABIAN SEA SEVERAL DAYS LATER.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UK MET GLOBAL MODEL WITH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THIS SHORT FORECAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: ---
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: ---//
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