WDPN31 PGTW 250300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 16.9N 138.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 816 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A SMALL EYE REPEATEDLY POPPING OUT AND THEN BECOMING CLOUD FILLED. BOTH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS CONFIRM DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IS STILL IMPEDING INTENSIFICATION OF TY 20W. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE ABOVE OBJECTIVE MEASURES DUE TO THE RELATIVELY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM BUT SATCON AND ADT ARE STEADILY RISING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT LEANS TOWARD THE SUBJECTIVE ASSESSMENTS BASED ON THE AMOUNT AND INTENSITY REVEALED ON A 242149Z SSMIS SERIES, WHICH ALSO CONFIRMS THE WEAKNESS OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TYPHOON 20W REMAINS SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOWING MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: 250003Z METOP-B ASCAT. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 5940M 500MB HEIGHT CENTER NEAR 25N 177E. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T4.0 - 65 KTS RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 242149Z CIMSS ADT: 61 KTS AT 242340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE VWS: 5-10 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TYPHOON 20W IS SLOWING AS IT BEGINS A LONG GRACEFUL BEND INTO THE MID-LATITUDES. A BUILDING HIGH HEIGHT CENTER SOUTH OF SHANGHAI IS EXTENDING INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE THE BONIN HIGH REMAINS STEADY AND STATIONARY, LEAVING TYPHOON 20W NOWHERE TO GO BUT THROUGH A WIDE ALLEY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THAT ALLEY WILL ALLOW TYPHOON 20W TO POLITELY SPARE OKINAWA, IWO TO, AND HONSHU, BUT INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STORM AND TRANSITORY AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER NORTHERN JAPAN WILL DRIVE A WIDE SWATH OF GALES OFF-SHORE OF HONSHU. THE SYSTEM WILL PEAK DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE 30C THROUGH THE 28TH LATITUDE, BUT SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM WILL GENERATE UPWELLING THAT WILL IMPEDE DEVELOPMENT TOWARDS THE STORMS MAXIMUM POTENTIAL. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ALSO BEGIN FALLING SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH OF THE TROPIC OF CANCER AND THERE IS A COLD EDDY ALONG TRACK. OTHER THAN THE OCEANOGRAPHIC FACTORS, HOWEVER, THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN BUT ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE, BOTH ENSEMBLE MEANS AND INDIVIDUAL CONSENSUS MEMBERS TELL THE SAME STORY REGARDING A SLOW AND GRACEFUL BLEND INTO THE MID LAITUDES, WITH THE STORM ROLLING OVER TO THE EAST OF NORTH AFTER CROSSING THE 25TH LATITUDE. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS STRAIGHT ON THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING MORE VARIABILITY AND A GREATER SPREAD. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, JUST ABOVE STASTICICAL DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND NEAR THE COAMPS-TC SOLUTION BASED ON THE NEARLY IDEALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN