WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.7N 138.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 837 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 23 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SHOWING
INCREASING ORGANIZATION AND DEEPENING CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. FOR A FEW FRAMES, AN EYE APPEARED TO BE REVEALING ITSELF BUT
OVER THE PAST THREE HOURS THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD CENTER (LLCC) HAS
BECOME COVERED IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
LOOPS SHOW DEEP MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM AND A PLUME OF DEEP
MOISTURE BEING DRAWN FROM EQUATORIAL LATITUDES INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. A 211645Z AMSR2 COLOR COMPOSITE IS SHOWING
WHAT MAY BE THE BEGINNINGS OF CYAN RING DEVELOPMENT, BUT THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOT CONTIGUOUS AROUND THE ENTIRE LLCC. THERE
IS NOT A COMPLETE EYEWALL YET. THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT STILL
LACKS COMPLETE COVERAGE OF DEEP MOISTURE. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT
IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT AND AN ADT RAW ADJUSTED
OUTPUT OF 59KTS. SATCON ALSO SHOWS 57KTS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM A 241222Z ASCAT PASS.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 5940M 500MB HEIGHT CENTER
NEAR 25N 177E.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   RJTD: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 57 KTS AT 241654Z
   CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 241740Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE MINDULLE IS CROSSING THE
TYPHOON STRENGTH THRESHOLD AND THERE IS VERY LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL
IMPEDIMENTS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM
THROUGH VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR THROUGH THE 25TH LATITUDE, AND FURTHER POLEWARD, WHILE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT FALLS, OTHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATE ONLY MARGINALLY.
THE BIGGEST IMPEDIMENT TO 21W NOT REACHING SUPER TYPHOON STRENGTH
MIGHT BE SLOW MOVEMENT AS IT PAUSES WHILE MAKING THE BEND AROUND
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE SOUTH OF SHANGHAI, AND AS THAT PORTION OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA WHILE THE
BONIN HIGH REMAINS STEADY, THE ONLY PATH FOR 2OW IS A STEADY BEND
TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN THE 25TH AND 30TH LATITUDE. CONFIDENCE AND
TRACK GUIDANCE IS NARROWING IN ON A GRACEFUL RECURATURE SCENARIO
WHERE MINDULLE TAKES A GENTLEMENLY TRACK--AT LEAST FOR LAND
LUBBERS--OVER OPEN OCEAN AND STANDS WELL OFF FROM NOT ONLY OKINAWA,
BUT ALSO FROM IWO TO AND THE KANTO PLAIN. HOWEVER, THE DEEP INTENSITY 
OF THE SYSTEM AND AUTUMNAL HIGH MIGRATING OVER NORTHERN JAPAN WILL 
INTERACT TO DRIVE A BROAD SWATH OF GALE FORCE NORTHEASTERLIES OFF-
SHORE OF HONSHU. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TIGHTENED UP OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS AND VARIABILITY HAS BECOME A MATTER OF ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS.
ALL TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A GRACEFULL RECURVATURE INTO THE
MID-LATITUDES AND A LIFE SPAN WELL BEYOND TAU 120. INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72 WITH A
SPREAD OF ONLY 25KTS AT PEAK TIMES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HWRF, WHICH 
KEEPS THE STORM BELOW 100KTS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ON THE 
HIGH SIDE OF GUIDANCE DUE TO THE IDEAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE 
TRACK FORECAST LOCKS ONTO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GREATEST
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE ISSUE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
AS THE STORM ROUNDS THE RIDGE. THE SLOWER THE MOVEMENT, THE MORE
THE UPWELLING IT GENEERATES WILL IMPEDE THE THE STORM FROM REACHING
ITS FULL POTENTIAL.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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