WDPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 20W (MINDULLE) WARNING 
NR 009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 16.1N 139.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 891 NM SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE WITH THE FEEDER BANDS DEEPENING AS
THEY TIGHTLY WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
241132Z METOP-B ASCAT AMBIGUITIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AGENCY AND
AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
SCATTEROMETERY PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGHLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, STRONG UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM SSTS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 50 KTS AT 241129Z
   CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 241140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 20W WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, SOUTHWEST OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, UP TO TAU
96. AFTER WHICH POINT, IT WILL PASS THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN A
NORTHWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
MAINTAIN AS IT FUELS RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
DECREASED UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM, DOWN TO 115KTS BY TAU 120. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE WITH THE CROSS TRACK SPREAD DECREASING TO 360 NM BY TAU
120. UKMET TRACKERS ARE STILL MAINTAINING TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS
WHEREAS GFS TRACKERS ARE THE RIGHT MOST OUTLIERS SHOWING A TIGHTER
RECURVE. THE FORECAST TRACK IS LAID NEAR THE JTWC CONSENSUS.
DESPITE HIGH MODEL CONFIDENCE IN INTENSITY, THERE IS ONLY MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE OVERALL AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
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