WDIO31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 03B (THREE) WARNING 
NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 18.8N 92.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 211 NM SOUTH OF CHITTAGONG
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240550Z GMI 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING DEEP CONVECTION OFFSET TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 240229Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWING A SWATH OF
30-35KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS OVERALL
FAVORABLE WITH AN ANTICYCLONE ALOFT, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 03B WILL GENERALLY CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT
WESTWARD
TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER INDIA BEFORE TAU 96. THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF SUSTAINED WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29
DEGREES CELSIUS), MODERATE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LOW SHEAR
(10-15 KNOTS) WILL FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 60KTS
BY TAU 48. A SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO
MODERATE SHEAR. AFTERWARDS, LAND INTERACTION ACROSS THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF INDIA WILL CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN LOOSE AGREEMENT ON TRACK
AND INTENSITY AS TC 03B HAS RECENTLY MOVED OFFSHORE AND INTENSIFIED
IN THE BAY OF BENGAL. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER, MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO GRASP ITS
CURRENT VORTEX. DESPITE THE ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TC 03B.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN