WDPN32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (NINETEEN) 
WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 14.7N 138.1E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 301 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 11 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
SYSTEM THAT IS SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING WITH SUSTAINED DEEP CONVECTION 
OVER THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON A
PARTIAL 061157Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KT WINDS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T1.5 - 25 KTS
   KNES: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 061140Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 0-5 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 19W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TURNING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 24. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS
TRACK UNTIL TAU 72, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD AGAIN
AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY AN UPPER-LEVEL
LOW TO THE NORTHWEST WHICH SEEMS TO BE INHIBITING OUTFLOW. THIS
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST, ALLOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO 95 KTS 
BY TAU 120.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO FORECAST TRACK UP TO TAU 24, BUT THEY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTERWARDS 
AND REACH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD 0F 230 NM AT TAU 72 AND INCREASING TO
400 NM AT TAU 120. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL
MODELS SHOWING STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 96. THE EXCEPTION
IS GFS WHICH PREVIOUSLY FAVORED STEADY INTENSIFICATION UNTIL THE
00Z MODEL RUN AND IS NOW CURRENTLY SHOWING THE SYSTEM NOT REACHING
MORE THAN 25 KTS. TO OFFSET THIS, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS PLACED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN