WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (OMAIS) 
WARNING NR 043//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.9N 125.5E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 189 NM NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DYING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 25 KTS AT 222340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W COMPLETES ITS TURN
AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, IT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, WEAKENING TO 25 KTS BY TAU 12 DUE TO HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FROM THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THIS
TRACK AND WEAKEN TO 20 KTS AS IT DISSIPATES OVER THE KOREAN
PENINSULA. THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT POSSIBLY DISSIPATING THE SYSTEM
EARLIER THAN TAU 24.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AFUM, WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST IS LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET
AFUM. FOR INTENSITY, GFS AND HWRF SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AT TAU 24. THIS SEEMS
UNREALISTIC SINCE ANY INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS VERY UNLIKELY DUE TO
THE HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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