WDPN31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 
040//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 25.1N 125.3E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 159 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION 
HAS BECOME SHEARED 30+ NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL POSITION IS 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLC IN THE MSI 
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY, PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, IS HELD 
LOWER THAN AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE AGENCY FINAL-T ESTIMATES AND SUPPORTED BY 
NUMEROUS NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INCLUDING THOSE FROM 
MIYAKOJIMA, 13NM TO THE SOUTH. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET 
BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN FLANK AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH AND HIGH VWS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE EAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA.

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
EAST.


AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RCTP: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 220302Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 220230Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 30+ KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 16W WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AS IT ROUNDS
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND CREST THE STR AXIS BEFORE TAU 12 IN
THE EAST CHINA SEA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL  ACCELERATE NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTH KOREA. THE UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL
GRADUALLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 AFTER IT MAKES
LANDFALL INTO SOUTH KOREA, POSSIBLY SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH THE
SOLE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, THE LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER. THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE JUST TO THE RIGHT AND
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. THERE IS ALSO 
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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