WDPN31 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 
039//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 24.3N 125.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 171 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS AN EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE
UNDER HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 212340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY
UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 25-30 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: WEAK EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: FORECAST NOW DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM
OVER LAND AT TAU 48.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TROPICAL STORM 16W
WILL BEGIN TURNING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE CURRENT MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING 45 KTS OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR BY TAU 36. AT THIS POINT, 16W WILL HAVE ROUNDED THE STR
AXIS, TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 30
KTS AS IT TRACKS OVER JEJU ISLAND AROUND TAU 36. TS 16W WILL THEN
TRACK OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 48 DUE TO LAND
INTERACTION.

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO TRACK FORECAST WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AFUM, WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY 
WEST OF THE OTHER MODEL TRACKERS. THEREFORE, JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS 
LAID JUST TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS TO OFFSET AFUM. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS SHOWING A 
WEAKENING TREND THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER, THE 
RATE OF THIS WEAKENING VARIES BETWEEN MODELS. HWRF IS MAINTAINING 
THE CURRENT INTENSITY UNTIL TAU 48 BEFORE WEAKENING THE SYSTEM, 
WHILE OTHER MODELS BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AT TAU 0. TO OFFSET 
HWRF, THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS BELOW CONSENSUS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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