WDPN31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 22.0N 127.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 270 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 16 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT
SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE 210445Z AMSR2 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
AVERAGE OF AGENCY AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
SUSTAINED METSAT SIGNATURE. ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MEDIUM VWS, WARM SSTS, AND
MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
FLANK AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE
NORTHEAST.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO
THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 210144Z
   CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 210250Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 16W WILL TURN MORE NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 12
AS IT ROUNDS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND CREST THE STR AXIS BY
TAU 24 IN THE EAST CHINA SEA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL  ACCELERATE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD, CROSS SOUTH KOREA, AND BY TAU 72 WILL EXIT
INTO THE SEA OF JAPAN (SOJ). THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 50KTS OVER THE NEXT
24HRS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED MIDLATITUDE TROUGH AND LAND INTERACTION WILL RAPIDLY
ERODE AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM BY TAU 72. CONCURRENTLY AT TAU 72,
IT WILL BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE COLD
BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SOJ.  

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH SEVERAL MODELS INCLUDING AFUM, UEMN, AND UKMET TRUNCATING THE
FORECAST TO 48HRS OR LESS. ADDITIONALLY, AFUM IS THE NOTABLE
LEFT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER DRIVING THE VORTEX INTO THE CHINESE COAST.
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE JUST TO THE
RIGHT AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS ALSO
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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