WDPN31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 16W (OMAIS) WARNING NR 
035//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 21.4N 128.2E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 307 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 17 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
OBSCURED BY A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE. CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION HAS IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WAS RAISED TO 45 KNOTS, WHICH IS AT THE HIGH END OF
THE AVAILABLE AGENCY FIXES. THIS ASSESSMENT IS SUPPORTED BY A
202310Z ASCAT-A PASS WITH 42 KNOT DATA OBSERVED, AS WELL AS
CIMSS SATCON AND ADT ESTIMATES. DESPITE A CONTINUED LACK OF USEFUL
LEO MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL POSITION IS NOW PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY FIXES AND THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA.
PRIOR POSITIONS WERE ADJUSTED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED FORWARD MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
RIDGING IS BUILDING IN OVER THE EAST SEA, AS EXPECTED.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: METOP-A SCATTEROMETER DATA 

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED
TO THE NORTHEAST

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RJTD: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   RCTP: T2.0 - 30 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 202340Z
   CIMSS SATCON: 44 KTS AT 202243Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
   VWS: 10-15 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, INCREASED 
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITIONING REVEALS TRACK SPEED IS FASTER 
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED, IMPACTING THE OVERALL CPA TIMELINES.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS 16W (OMAIS) HAS CONTINUED TO STEADILY
TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AS AN EXTENSION 
OF THE STR REMAINS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTHEAST. OMAIS IS
EXPECTED TO TURN ON TO A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK OVER THE COURSE OF
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT ROUNDS THE STR, FOLLOWED BY A RECURVATURE
TO THE NORTHEAST AFTER CLEARING THE RYUKU CHAIN. ALTOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN IMPROVEMENT IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIMITED AS THE DEVELOPING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH SHOULD BRING INCREASINGLY SIGNIFICANT SHEAR OVER THE NEXT 
24 HOURS. AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASED INITIAL ANALYSIS INTENSITY, 
THE PEAK INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 48, 
STRONG SHEAR OPPOSING THE STORM MOTION SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID 
DETERIORATION. THE INCREASED FORWARD SPEED SHIFTED THE TRACK 
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD, WHICH NOW TAKES A COURSE OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP 
OF SOUTH KOREA. THIS LANDFALL SHOULD FURTHER CONTRIBUTE TO A 
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. HOWEVER, BY THIS TIME, 16W WILL BE
UNDER THE JET AND COMPLETING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE
DISSIPATION SCENARIO IS BEING MAINTAINED FOR CONSISTENCY, BUT ETT
MAY COMPLETE AT THE SAME TIME OR SOONER THAN DISSIPATION. SOME MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT ANOTHER CIRCULATION MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
CHINA MAY MERGE WITH THE REMNANTS OF 16W, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEVELOPING EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN, BEYOND THIS
FORECAST.

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SPLIT. NAVGEM HAS 
NOW MOVED INTO THE PRIMARY GROUPING OF CONSENSUS MODELS INCLUDING 
EGRR,GFS, ECMWF AND THEIR ENSEMBLES, WHICH ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED 
ABOUT THE JTWC TRACK THROUGH TAU 48. THERE IS INCREASING ALONG TRACK 
SPREAD THEREAFTER. UKMET AND GALWEM REMAIN NOTABLE OUTLIERS TO THE 
WEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE WESTWARD OUTLIERS. THE INTENSIFY 
FORECAST IS NEAR CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 24, AND THEN FALLS MORE 
RAPIDLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OF HIGH SHEAR. HIGH 
RESOLUTION HWRF AND COAMPS-TC MODELS PEAK AT 55 TO 60 KNOTS, 
RESPECTIVELY. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   TRACK 72-120 HR: ---
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: ---//
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