WDPN31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16W (SIXTEEN) WARNING NR 030// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 18.5N 132.2E INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 538 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION AND RADIAL OUTFLOW. A 191709Z AMSR2 89GHZ PASS REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, ALONG WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED OFF THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR2 PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE MULTI-AGENCY INTENSITY ESTIMATES DUE TO THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND RADII). CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF HONSHU. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T1.5 - 25 KTS KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 15-20 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 16W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP STR THROUGH TAU 48, THEN TURN NORTHWARD BY TAU 60 AS IT APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE STR, THEN ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONG THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE ALOFT TRACKS ALONG WITH THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IT WILL PROVIDE A SOURCE OF MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LOW VWS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AND PEAK AT 45 KTS BY TAU 36 AS IT APPROACHES THE STR AXIS. HOWEVER, BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS FURTHER NORTHWEST THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH STRONG VWS WITH SIGNIFICANT NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW. BY TAU 72, TD 16W WILL BE COMPLETELY UNDER THE STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALOFT, AND WILL EXPERIENCE DRAMATICALLY INCREASED VWS AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE, LEADING TO FAIRLY RAPID DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 96. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE RECURVE SCENARIO, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 55 NM AT TAU 24 AND 100 NM BY TAU 48. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AS IT FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLIES. THE UKMET ENSEMBLE IS THE LEFT OUTLIER WHILE ECMWF IS THE RIGHT OUTLIER, LENDING TO THE JTWC TRACK BEING HEDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS (ICNW) BY TAU 36. AFTERWHICH, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS HEDGED LOWER THAN ICNW DUE TO SYSTEM INTERACTION WITH SIGNIFICANT VWS AS TD 16W APPROACHES TAU 48 SOUTH- SOUTHWEST OF KADENA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM// NNNN