WDPN31 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 26.4N 124.7E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 167 NM WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHWARD AT 10 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 33 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
 REINTENSIFIED AS IT REGAINED CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND SYMMETRY AND
IMPROVED FEEDER BAND WRAP AS IT MAINTAINED A RAGGED 22-NM EYE. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MSI
EYE FEATURE THAT IS CONCENTRIC WITH A LARGER, ALBEIT WELL-DEFINED,
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF BELOW AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES AND REFLECTS
THE 6-HR INTENSIFICATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE, ADJUSTED FOR
INTENSIFICATION.  

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SOUTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RJTD: T4.5 - 77 KTS
   RCTP: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
   CIMSS ADT: 41 KTS AT 232340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
   VWS: 5-10 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
   INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TY 09W WILL TRACK ON A MORE NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY AS THE STEERING STR RECEDES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH
OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM (11W) FROM ITS SOUTHEAST. BY TAU 36, THE
CYCLONE WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN CHINA, SOUTH OF SHANGHAI,
AND DRAG INLAND AND WESTWARD AS A SECONDARY, LOWER LEVER, STR ASSUMES
STEERING. THE CURRENT FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL FUEL FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 70KTS AT TAUS 12-24; AFTERWARD,
COOLING SSTS IN THE YELLOW SEA, INCREASING VWS, THEN LAND
INTERACTION WILL GRADUALLY THEN RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96 AS IT TRACKS 230NM+ INLAND, POSSIBLY SOONER. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: NUERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A
GRADUAL AND EVEN SPREAD TO 285NM BY TAU 96, THE LARGEST FLARE
OCCURING AFTER TAU 48. THERE IS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS ALSO REASONABLY SPREAD UP TO LANDFALL.
AFTERWARD, THE DISCREPANCY INCREASES CONCURRENT TO THE DIVERGENCE
IN TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH UP TO TAU 48;
AFTERWARD, LOW.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
NNNN