WDPN32 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (CEMPAKA) 
WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 20.8N 107.4E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 25 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 85 NM EAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHWARD AT 06 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 6 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI), ANIMATED RADAR
IMAGERY, AND SURFACE REPORTS ALONG COASTAL CHINA AND VIETNAM
CONFIRM THAT THE VORTEX OF TD 10W REMAINS INTACT AND HAS MOVED
OFF-SHORE. SOME DISORGANIZED CONVECTION PERSISTS WITH THE SYSTEM,
PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
DURING THE PAST 18 HOURS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS INCREASED
SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE GULF OF TONKIN, CREATING AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR SYSTEM REGENERATION.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF THE
SUBTRPOPICAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN CHINA. 

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: NO CURRENT ESTIMATE
   CIMSS ADT: 28 KTS AT 222340Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: MODERATE WESTWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: LOW
   INITIAL INTENSITY: LOW
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TD 10W IS NOT EXPECTED TO REGENERATE TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS DUE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE GULF
OF TONKIN. THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF TONKIN WILL SUSTAIN THE
VORTEX THROUGH TAU 24 BUT EVENTUALLY THE WINDSHEAR WILL OVERCOME
THE SYSTEM. 

MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH A CYCLONIC LOOP
TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND. NO GUIDANCE INDICATES INTENSIFICATION AND
STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM ON A FLAT TREND
THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN DISSIPATING OVER WATER. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW//
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