WDPN31 PGTW 220300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUMMARY: INITIAL POSITION: 23.3N 126.0E INITIAL INTENSITY: 90 KTS GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 210 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KTS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 36 FEET SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 212247Z SSMIS SERIES INDICATE THAT TY 09W IS IN THE MIDDLE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS LACKING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE ERC AND UPWELLING CAUSED BY THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM HAS KEPT THE INTENSITY TREND FLAT OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS IMPROVING. THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON AVERAGE OF 3 AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE POSITION IS BASED ON AN EYE FIX ON 15NM RAGGED EYE. A 212331Z ASCAT PASS CONFIRMS GALE FORCE EASTERLIES EXTEND TO NORTH OF OKINAWA AND GALE FORCE NORTHERLIES OVER THE SENKAKUS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SOME PRESSURE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT BUT FOR THE MOST PART THE SYSTEM IS COCOONED AND ABLE TO GENERATE MODERATE OUTFLOW IN ALL QUADRANTS. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS RJTD: T5.5 - 102 KTS KNES: T5.0 - 90 KTS CIMSS SATCON: 94 KTS AT 212228Z CIMSS ADT: 107 KTS AT 212340Z FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE VWS: 10-15 KTS SST: 29-30 CELSIUS OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE: INITIAL POSITION: HIGH INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM 3. FORECAST REASONING. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING. FORECAST DISCUSSION: A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT CENTER PEAKING OVER THE SEA OF JAPAN HAS FORCED THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EQUATORWARD OF THE EXPECTED TRACK OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT THE PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND TY 09W WILL BEND POLEWARD IN THE NEAR FUTURE. ONCE ON ITS NORTHWESTWARD LEG, IT WILL ROAR OVER ISHIGAKIJIMA AT ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS. BEYOND THE SENKAKUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY AND WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE, SENDING THE SYSTEM ON A PERMANENT DOWNWARD INTENSITY TREND UNTIL ITS LANDFALL SOUTH OF SHANGHAI. MODEL DISCUSSION: A MINORITY OF MEMBERS OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE KEEP THE SYSTEM SEAWARD OF SHANGHAI WHILE DECAYING IT, BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE LANDFALL SCENARIO. VORTEX TRACKERS ARE IN REASONABLY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT BEYOND THE 27TH LATITUDE THE MEMBERS OF CONSENSUS DIVERGE SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH GFS, THE AMERICAN ENSEMBLE, AND COAMPS TC STAYING SEAWARD OF SHANGHAI. ECMWF, JGSM, AND THE JAPANESE ENSEMBLE STAY WELL WEST OF SHANGHAI. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST STAYS WITH THE LATTER GROUPING AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST STAYS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THEN DROPS SHARPLY BELOW CONSENSUS AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL, AS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM THOSE MODELS REMAINING OVER WATER IS PULLING THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FALSELY HIGHER. FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW// NNNN