WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 06W (CHAMPI) WARNING NR 
024//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

SUMMARY:
   INITIAL POSITION: 28.2N 140.8E
   INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
   GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 99 NM NORTHWEST OF CHICHI JIMA
   MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KTS
   SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET

SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION, AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE 
SYSTEM WEAKENING AND ELONGATING AS IT CONTINUES TO UNRAVEL DUE TO 
HIGH VWS IN THE STRONG PREVAILING WESTERLIES. THE INITIAL POSITION 
IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 261605Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN MULTIPLE 
AGENCY DVORAK FIXES BOUND BY CONSTRAINTS AND IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE REFLECTING THE RAPID WEAKENING STATE AS THE SYSTEM 
ENCOUNTERS THE COOLER SSTS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGHER VWS.

INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND 
RADII).

CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST.

AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES: 
   PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   RJTD: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
   CIMSS SATCON: 43 KTS AT 261830Z
   CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 261900Z

FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE
   VWS: 20-25 KTS
   SST: 25-26 CELSIUS
   OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
   INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
   INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
   INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE

3. FORECAST REASONING.

SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO 
THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: TS CHAMPI WILL CONTINUE RAPIDLY MOVING TO THE 
NORTHEAST ALONG THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STEERING STR AND BY TAU 24 
WILL BE 360NM SOUTHEAST OF MISAWA AB, JAPAN. THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE WEAKENING UNDER THE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. 
CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 12, TS 06W WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE BAIU 
BOUNDARY AND START EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AND TRANSFORM INTO A 
GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD AS IT GETS 
EMBEDDED IN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN TAUS 24-36 IF NOT SOONER.
 
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERIC MODELS REMAIN TIGHT AND GRADUALLY AND 
EVENLY SPREAD TO A MERE 99NM AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
   TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
   INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
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