WDPN31 PGTW 140900 
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) 
WARNING NR 007//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 132 
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE COMPACT 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 140505Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
INDICATES LIMITED CURVED BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 
THE CENTER POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MARGINAL CONDITIONS WITH MODERATE 
(20 KNOTS) WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW. ANIMATED 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINES EXTENDING 
SOUTHWESTWARD NEAR PALAWAN ISLAND. TD 03W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 40NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, LENDING 
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. TD 03W IS 
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER MINDANAO, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY 
TAU 24 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25 KNOTS) AND UPPER-LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.//
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