WDPN31 PGTW 132100 
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) 
WARNING NR 005//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM MADE LANDFALL OVER 
DAVAO ORIENTAL NEAR CATEL BAY AT APPROXIMATELY 1300Z. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SPARSE SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS INTACT BUT IS WEAKENING 
RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDANAO. DEEP CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC, 
INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS VERTICAL STACK. THE LOW-TO-MID 
LEVEL STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIVE THE LLCC WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD.  
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 03W WILL WEAKEN OVER LAND BUT CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND RE-ENTER THE SULU SEA 
OFF ZAMBOANGA DEL NORTE.
AS IT DOES SO IT WILL ENTER A MUCH LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND INCREASING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE PGTW 131200Z STREAMLINE CONFIRM 
THAT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE SULU SEA, WHICH 
WILL SUPPRESS RE-INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS IT MOVES BACK OVER 
WATER. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BOTH TRACK AND 
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE BIGGEST FORECASTING DIFFICULTY WITH 
THIS SYSTEM IS DETERMINING HOW MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL BE 
LEFT OF THE SYSTEM AND EXACTLY WHERE IT WILL RE-ENTER THE SULU SEA, 
BUT THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE SULU SEA 
WILL PROHIBIT SUBSTANTIAL RE-DEVELOPMENT.//
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