WDPN31 PGTW 122100 
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W (THREE) 
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
    TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 
256 NM EAST OF DAVAO, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED AND 
DEVELOPED WELL DEFINED SHALLOW BANDING FEATURES WHICH ARE WRAPPING 
TIGHTLY INTO A COMPACT CORE WITH MODERATE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A COMBINATION OF 
PGTW, KNES AND RJTD FIX POSITIONS AND A 121642Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE WHICH DEPICTED THE SYMMETRICAL CORE CONVECTION, SHALLOW OUTER 
BANDS AND A WEAK MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 
30 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 
121145Z ASCAT-B PASS WHICH INDICATED WINDS OF 25-30 KTS, SUPPORTED BY 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS) FROM KNES AND RJTD, 
AND T1.5 FROM PGTW (25 KTS). ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (30C) SSTS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR 
IS THE LACK OF A STRONG OUTFLOW MECHANISM ALOFT. JTWC UPPER-LEVEL 
ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY SMALL POINT SOURCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, BUT 
ONLY VERY WEAK CHANNELS TO POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD. TD 03W IS CURRENTLY 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE 
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FOR THIS SYSTEM.
   B. TD 03W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, 
ALONG THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. 
THEREAFTER, AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE, IT WILL SHIFT TO A SLIGHTLY MORE 
WESTWARD TRACK AS IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER-
LEVEL FLOW. FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST THE ENVIRONMENT IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE, WITH LOW VWS, WARM SSTS AND MARGINAL 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, ALLOWING FOR THE SYSTEM TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 
40 KTS JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OF MINDANAO. AFTER 
LANDFALL TD 03W WILL BEGIN A STEADY WEAKENING TREND DUE TO TERRAIN 
INTERACTION. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE OVER WATER BUT WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS 
PALAWAN AND INTO THE SULU SEA, INCREASING VWS AND INDUCING CONVERGENT FLOW 
ALOFT. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE NO LATER 
THAN TAU 72 IN THE SULU SEA, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF DISSIPATION AS EARLY AS 
TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH MINIMAL SPREAD 
THROUGH TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MORE UNCERTAIN, AS THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE IS 
NOT HANDLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE COMPACT SYSTEM WELL, WITH SIGNIFICANT 
DIVERGENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST 
IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN, IN LARGE PART ESTIMATED BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS, WHICH 
ARE NOT EFFECTIVELY CAPTURED IN THE MOST RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE, RESULTING 
IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.//
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