WDPN31 PGTW 241500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 45// RMKS// 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A STEADILY WEAKENING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONSTRAINED TO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE BROAD, INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 241121Z ASCAT-A SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A 241302Z GMI 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE PROVIDED HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS) FROM PGTW AND T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM RJTD, IN LIGHT OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED A BAND OF 40 KT WINDS STRETCHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, AND A BROAD AREA OF 35-40 KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY HOSTILE, WITH VWS NOW EXCEEDING 35 KTS AND SSTS PERSISTING BELOW 25C. 500MB ANALYSIS REVEALS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NORTHERN REACHES OF THE EAST CHINA SEA, RAPIDLY MOVING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS SURIGAE. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. WHILE THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR TRACK HAS BEEN TOWARDS THE EAST- SOUTHEAST, OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, SS 02W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING TO THE EAST, THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG MID- LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH, IT WILL DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT THERMAL ADVECTION, ULTIMATELY TRANSITIONING TO A STRONG, GALE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM BY TAU 36 AS IT RACES NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH INCREASING ALONG-TRACK UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS MEAN, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.// NNNN