WDPN33 PGTW 220300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 035//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM 
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY SURIGAE CROSSED A SIGNIFICANT CHECKPOINT 
DURING THE PAST TWELVE HOURS AND BEGAN A NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY 
DIRECTION TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE EYE HAS CONSTRICTED SLIGHTLY AND 
IS BEGINNING TO BECOME CLOUD-FILLED. MSI STILL SHOWS A VIGOROUS AND 
WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH A 45NM EYE WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 
THE INITIAL POSITION. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND AN EXPANDING CLOUD SHIELD THAT 
IS BEGINNING TO STRETCH TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURIGAE FEELS THE 
EFFECTS OF VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. BASED ON THE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM IS ON A CLEAR WEAKENING TREND. BOTH SUBJECTIVE 
AND AUTOMATED DVORAK ASSESSMENTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT (PGTW T5.5, 
RCTP T5.0, RJTD T5.5, KNES T5.0), LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 100 
KTS INITIAL INTENSITY. 
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY 
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY SURIGAE WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEASTERLY BEARING AND WEAKEN 
STEADILY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH THE EYE FILLING AND THE 
CLOUD SHIELD STRETCHING AS IT DOES SO. ANALYSIS OF STORM CROSS 
SECTIONS INDICATE THE BEGINNING OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT INTO THE 
WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING IN 
THE NEAR TERM. TWO MID-LATITUDE TROUGHS MOVING OFF THE ASIA 
CONTINENT WILL AFFECT THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE 
FIRST WILL BE A NEAR MISS AS SURIGAE TRACKS SOUTH OF OKINAWA. IT 
WILL STRETCH AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM BUT NOT PICK IT UP AND CARRY IT 
INTO THE MID-LATITUDES.  AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE 
FIRST TROUGH IT WILL NUDGE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TAU 48 
AND 72. A SECOND, DEEPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY 
TRACKING OVER THE GOBI DESERT WILL PICK UP THE SYSTEM NEAR TAU 72 
AND LEAD TO THE INITIATION OF EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TRACK 
GUIDANCE IS TIGHT THROUGH TAU 72 (NEAR THE 135TH MERIDIAN), THEN 
BEGINS TO SPREAD AND VARY IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS DURING THE PROCESS 
OF ABSORPTION INTO THE THICKNESS RIBBON (BAROCLINIC ZONE).  
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE IN THE LATEST MODEL 
RUNS AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A STEADY AND LINEAR DECLINE IN 
INTENSITY THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS. DESPITE GOOD CONFIDENCE IN 
BOTH TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH THE FIRST 72 HOURS THE 
LACK OF RECENT SCATTEROMETRY AND THE COMING STRETCHING OF THE 
WINDFIELDS BY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS MAKE FOR CONSIDERABLY LESS 
CONFIDENCE IN THE WIND RADII. 
   C. GUIDANCE HAS CRYSTALLIZED REGARDING TY SURIGAE?S TRANSITION TO 
AN EXTRA TROPICAL CYCLONE SHORTLY PAST TAU 120. THE GFS SOLUTION 
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A DECAPITATION SCENARIO, HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM 
TRACKS UNDER THE WESTERLIES AND RESULTS IN A MEANDERING LOW LEVEL 
VORTEX. THIS SCENARIO CONTINUES TO BE A MODEL OUTLIER. A MORE 
STANDARD CASE OF ABSORPTION INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND TRANSITION 
TO A MID-LATITUDE LOW IS BECOMING MORE CONVINCING. ASIDE FROM GFS, 
PHASE-BASED GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN SHOWING THE TRANSITION TO A 
COLD CORE. BASED ON THE PREPONDERANCE OF GUIDANCE, THE JTWC FORECAST 
IS BASED ON THE EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION SCENARIO, ALBEIT WITH 
LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN DESIRED GIVEN THE RECENT OUTSTANDING 
PERFORMANCE OF THE GFS MODEL. THE HEARTENING NEWS IS THAT EVEN IF 
THE GFS SOLUTION DOES MANIFEST, THE LEFTOVER LOW LEVEL VORTEX WILL 
BE SO WEAK AND FAR FROM LAND AS TO BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE JTWC 
TRACK STAYS VERY TIGHT WITH CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72, THEN IS HEDGED 
A LITTLE EQUATORWARD OF CONSENSUS TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND JGSM 
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST REMAINS THAT OF A TEXT-BOOK MID-
LATITUDE TRANSITION AND IS SUPPORTED BY ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. 
BEGINNING NEAR TAU 72 (25/00Z) THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS 
WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST AND THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO THE 
NORTHEAST WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE 
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE ON 
INTENSITY GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. A BRIEF BUMP IN 
INTENSITY WILL OCCUR AS IT FUSES WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND 
BECOMES A VIGOROUS STORM FORCE LOW WHILE TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST 
OF IWO TO.//
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