WDPN31 PGTW 190900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 308 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A VERY INTENSE AND HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED 37NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP, ADJUSTED FOR SLIGHT TILT AND LINED UP WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 190524Z ATMS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 125KTS IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF AGENCY DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES OF T6.0/115KTS (KNES), T6.5/127KTS (PGTW/RJTD) AND THE OBJECTIVE FINAL-T ESTIMATE OF T6.3/124KTS (ADT), AND REFLECTS THE SUSTAINED INTENSE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF THE SYSTEM. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, LOW (5- 10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SLOWLY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK UP TO TAU 48. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TURN MORE POLEWARD AS IT CRESTS THE STR AXIS. INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM, DOWN TO 90KTS BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A GRADUAL AND EVEN CROSS-TRACK SPREAD TO 121NM BY TAU 48, TIGHTENING TO 78NM BY TAU 72, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID CLOSE TO MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY SURIGAE WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD ON THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE STR. THE ADDITION OF COOLING SSTS WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM FASTER AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE REDUCED TO 55KTS. CONCURRENTLY AROUND TAU 96, IT WILL UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT ENTERS THE COLD BAROCLINIC ZONE. THE NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT IN AGREEMENT AND ONLY SPREAD TO 174NM BY TAU 120, LENDING ALSO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN