WDPN31 PGTW 162100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TY 02W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 6 NM EYE OBSERVED IN THE EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 115 KTS, HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (RJTD), T6.0 (PGTW), AND T6.5 (KNES). OF NOTE, PGTW OBSERVED AN INSTANTANEOUS DATA T OF 6.5, BUT MAINTAINED A SLIGHTLY LOWER ESTIMATE BASED ON AN OBSERVED WEAKNESS OBSERVED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T5.9 (112 KTS) AND A 161713Z SATCON OF 121KTS ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE 34- AND 50-KT WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE 161255Z ASCAT-C DATA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 02W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE WEAKNESS IN THE STR. AROUND TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT ENTERS THE COL. DURING THIS TIME, THE STR TO THE EAST IS FORECAST TO BUILD AND TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE, DRIVING THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. TY 02W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 24, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KTS. AFTERWARDS, DECREASING DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM AND CAUSE IT TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS, THE ECMWF AND GFS TRACK SOLUTIONS HAVE SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST, COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE JGSM, UKMET, AND UKMET ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE EASTERNMOST SOLUTIONS. BASED ON THE VARIATION IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. C. AFTER TAU 72, TY 02W WILL TURN TO A NORTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 120, TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE BEGINS TO SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASE AFTER TAU 72. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SYSTEM SLOWLY WEAKENING TO 90 KTS BY TAU 120. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS DIVERGE TO A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 535 NM AT TAU 120. OF NOTE, THE ECMWF SOLUTION CONTINUES TO BRING THE SYSTEM OVER LUZON BY TAU 120 DESPITE HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. BASED ON THIS UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN