WDPN31 PGTW 142100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DENSE, FLARING CONVECTION OVERHEAD. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A 141616Z AMSR2 36GHZ IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS BROAD BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS BASED ON THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND RJTD AND THE OBJECTIVE ADT OF T2.8/41KTS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST DUAL OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. TS 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 02W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR AND WILL CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, REACHING 95 KTS BY TAU 72. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 72 DUE TO THE CONSISTENT SHEAR AND PRESSURE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF TS 02W. NUMERICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 160NM BY TAU 72 LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS. C. AFTER TAU 72, A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH NORTH OF THE STR WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN, CAUSING A BREAK IN STR. ONCE THE STR BREAKS, TS SURIGAE WILL BEGIN TO TURN POLEWARD, TRACKING AROUND EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE AND BRING TS 02W TO A PEAK OF 115KTS AT TAU 96 AND WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AFTERWARDS AS COOLER SST PREVAIL. NUMERICAL MODEL CROSS-TRACK SPREAD HAS DECREASED TO 270NM AT TAU 120 OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.// NNNN