WDPN31 PGTW 192100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING AWAY FROM THE LLCC DUE TO THE STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VWS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS), A SATELLITE CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 46KTS, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A T2.5 FROM KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG (25-30 KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ERODED THE SYSTEM STRUCTURE AND DECOUPLED THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 29-30C SSTS ARE HELPING MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM, THE VWS IS TOO STRONG, OFFSETING ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 01W IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE STR CENTERED TO THE EAST BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD. TS DUJUAN WILL MOVE ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE STR WITH A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF MINDANAO BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, THEN TRACK OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, REACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF MINDORO BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BESET BY STRONG VWS AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECREASING IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH 145NM SPREAD AT TAU 36, INCREASING TO 350NM AT TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AFTER IT COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, ENCOUNTERING A MUCH COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS AND CONVERGENT, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, CAUSING TS DUJUAN TO BEGIN DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED IN DISPARITY IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. MODEL SPREAD INCREASES TO 510NM BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE WESTERN OUTLIER OF GFS AND EASTERN OUTLIER OF UKMET. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.// NNNN