WDPN31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN) WARNING 
NR 010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 01W (DUJUAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 134NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
DEPICTS A LARGE CONVECTIVE MASS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) MOVING AWAY FROM THE LLCC DUE TO THE 
STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VWS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 
SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, IN LINE WITH AGENCY DVORAK 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM PGTW, AN ADVANCED 
DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS), A SATELLITE 
CONSENSUS (SATCON) OF 46KTS, AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A T2.5 FROM 
KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL AND SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONG (25-30 
KT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) HAS ERODED THE SYSTEM 
STRUCTURE AND DECOUPLED THE UPPER AND LOWER-LEVEL PORTIONS OF THE 
SYSTEM. WHILE THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM 29-30C SSTS 
ARE HELPING MAINTAIN THE SYSTEM, THE VWS IS TOO STRONG, OFFSETING 
ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TS 01W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST 
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED 
TO THE NORTHEAST. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM 
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 01W IS CONTINUING TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD, AS THE STR 
CENTERED TO THE EAST BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD. TS DUJUAN WILL MOVE 
ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE STR WITH A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST 
ORIENTATION. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE 
NORTHEAST COAST OF MINDANAO BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, THEN TRACK 
OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS, REACHING THE SOUTH COAST OF 
MINDORO BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE BESET BY STRONG 
VWS AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF THE TERRAIN INTERACTION. NUMERICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS DECREASING IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH 145NM SPREAD 
AT TAU 36, INCREASING TO 350NM AT TAU 72. OVERALL, THERE IS POOR 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THROUGH TAU 72.  
   C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN, AFTER IT 
COMES UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOWER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY 
FLOW. BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96 THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA, ENCOUNTERING A MUCH COOLER, DRIER AIR MASS AND 
CONVERGENT, UPPER-LEVEL FLOW, CAUSING TS DUJUAN TO BEGIN 
DISSIPATING. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INCREASED IN DISPARITY IN 
THE EXTENDED TAUS, WITH THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS. MODEL SPREAD 
INCREASES TO 510NM BY TAU 96 DUE TO THE WESTERN OUTLIER OF GFS AND 
EASTERN OUTLIER OF UKMET. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS POSITIONED 
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSELY TRACKS THE ECMWF 
SOLUTION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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