WDPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (GONI) WARNING 
NR 036//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
167 NM SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A BROAD, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHEARED TO 
THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON THE FULLY-EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
AT 30 KTS AND IS PLACED NEAR MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS, PGTW AND RJTD) TO 2.0 (30 KTS, KNES) WITH 
FAIR CONFIDENCE. TD 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A 
REGION OF MODERATE (10-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY 
WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND DIVERGENCE 
ALOFT. THESE CONDITIONS RESULT IN AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TD 22W WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL VIETNAM
BY TAU 12 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL WEAKEN TO 25 KTS AS IT BEGINS TO 
DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO TERRAIN INTERACTION. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
FURTHER INLAND IT WILL COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 24 OVER
CAMBODIA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 32 NM 
SPREAD IN THE SOLUTIONS AT LANDFALL WHICH INCREASES TO 120 NM BY TAU 
24. THIS INCREASING SPREAD LENDS ONLY FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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