WDPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 
029//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION 
WITH NO DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED 
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CLOUD BANDS 
WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LLCC AND A 032337Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE 
BASED ON AN A PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 
T2.5 (35 KNOTS). TS 22W PERSISTS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW 
TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WARM SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (27-28 CELSIUS). THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING TO THE WEST 
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE 
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STEERING PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE FOR TS 22W AS 
IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN 
VIETNAM, JUST BEFORE TAU 48. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE 
FORECASTED IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A VWS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS AND OUTFLOW TO REMAIN 
LIMITED, INHIBITING SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE, WITH TRACKERS DIVERGING AFTER 
TAU 12. NAVGEM SHOWS TS 22W MOVING NORTHWEST AND UKMET ENSEMBLE MEAN 
DIVERTS SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, THE REMAINING MODELS AGREE WITH A 
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL. SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS 
INCREASES TO OVER 250 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES NEAR THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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