WDPN31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 
028//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(EIR) SHOWS THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF DEEP, FLARING CONVECTION WITH NO 
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ASSESSMENT OF THE OUTER LOW LEVEL CLOUD 
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LLCC AND A 031739Z ATMS MICROWAVE 
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT OF 35 KNOTS WITH GOOD 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN A PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS), HEDGED SLIGHTLY BELOW AN ADVANCED 
DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF 37 KNOTS. TS 22W PERSISTS IN A 
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR (VWS), MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW DISPLACED TO THE 
NORTHWEST AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 CELSIUS). THE 
SYSTEM IS TRACKING TO THE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 
DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE STEERING PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE FOR TS 22W AS 
IT TRACKS GENERALLY WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN 
VIETNAM, JUST AFTER TAU 48.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE 
FORECASTED IN THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, WITH A VWS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN AT LOW TO MODERATE LEVELS AND OUTFLOW TO REMAIN 
LIMITED, INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. DYNAMIC MODEL 
GUIDANCE STILL REMAINS QUESTIONABLE, WITH TRACKERS DIVERGING AFTER 
TAU 12. NAVGEM SHOWS TS 22W MOVING NORTHWEST AND GFS SOLUTIONS 
DIVERT SOUTHWEST, HOWEVER, THE REMAINING MODELS AGREE WITH A 
GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH LANDFALL. SPREAD BETWEEN OUTLIERS 
INCREASES TO OVER 250 NM BY TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES JUST 
SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
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