WDPN31 PGTW 020300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) 
WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 146 
NM WEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
(MSI) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING FEATURES
THAT WRAP INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY BUILDING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP AND IN A 012223Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WIND FIELD PRESENT IN A 012207Z
SMAP PASS AND BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW) AND T2.5 (35 KTS, KNES). TS 
GONI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHWEST 
AND THROUGH AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND ONLY WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS GONI WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE STEERING RIDGE THROUGH TAU 72. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL 
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AS VWS BECOMES MODERATE (15-20 KTS) AND WILL
LEAD TO A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY TAU 24. AFTER 
THIS TIME, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FORECAST TO 
DECREASE WHILE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW FURTHER WEAKENS. THIS WILL
PREVENT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL 
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THIS INITIAL
PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST WITH A MAXIMUM SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS OF 165 NM AT TAU 72, AND LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. 
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS GONI WILL BEGIN A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 96 TS 
GONI WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN VIETNAM NEAR
QUI NHON. INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL CAUSE
THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND, RESULT IN A
WEAKENING TO 30 KTS BY TAU 96 AND FULL DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. 
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL POOR AGREEMENT
FOR THIS FINAL PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM
SPREAD IN MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS OF 450 NM AT TAU 120. THIS
FAIR AGREEMENT IN MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL POOR 
CONFIDENCE IN THE REMAINDER OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
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