WDPN31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) 
WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 165 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED 
WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT THE
EYE FEATURE HAS FILLED WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO
WEAKEN OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SPIRAL BANDS
OF CONVECTION PRESENT IN THE COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP AS 
WELL AS A REMAINING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A
312236Z SSMIS 91 GHZ IMAGE. THE RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS 
THAT THE SYSTEM CENTER IS NOW POSITIONED OVER LAND 
NORTHWEST OF LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES. THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY OF 115 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE 
AND IS BASED ON AN RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF T6.0 AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE APPARENT 
WEAKENING TREND IN THE MSI LOOP. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
UNFAVORABLE DUE TO THE SYSTEM POSITION OVER LAND AND
MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY GONI 
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE 
NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK OVER LAND 
THROUGH TAU 12. CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND THE OVER 
LAND TRACK WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING TO 90 KTS
BY THIS TIME. BY TAU 24, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE BEGUN TO
TRACK OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. COOLER (27-28 CELSIUS) 
SST AND CONTINUED MODERATE VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER 
WEAKENING TO 70 KTS BY THIS TIME. SST IS FORECAST TO 
DECREASE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AFTER
TAU 24, WHICH WILL OFFSET A SLIGHT DECREASE IN VWS AND
LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 60 KTS BY TAU 72. 
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT 
WITH A MAXIMUM 208 NM SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72, 
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY GONI WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND 
MAKE A SECOND AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM 
SOUTH OF DA NANG AT TAU 96. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO 
GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND 
COOLER (25-26 CELSIUS) SST AT THIS TIME. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS 
AND BY TAU 120 WILL BE REDUCED TO 30KTS. NAVGEM DIVERGES
TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODELS AND 
JGSM TO THE LEFT, THEREBY OFFSETTING EACH OTHER. IN VIEW 
OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION 
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID ALONG THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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