WDPN31 PGTW 312100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 016// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 245 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, DENSE, AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH A WELL DEFINED 12 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN THE EIR AND COMPOSITE RADAR LOOPS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 170 KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T8.0 (170 KTS, PGTW, RJTD AND KNES) AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN AN ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.8 (164 KTS) AND A 311654Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 161 KTS. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). STY GONI IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR LEGAZPI, PHILIPPINES WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS AS AN INTENSE SUPER TYPHOON. AFTER LANDFALL, CONTINUED MODERATE VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TO 75 KTS BY TAU 24, BY WHICH TIME IT WILL HAVE ENTERED THE WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE AT THIS TIME AS HIGH (20-25 KTS) VWS HINDERS INTENSIFICATION DESPITE CONTINUED WARM SST, THROUGH TAU 48. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TO 65 KTS BY TAU 36 AND FURTHER WEAKEN TO 60 KTS BY TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, VWS WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY, HOWEVER SST WILL ALSO DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THESE FACTORS WILL ALLOW STY GONI TO MAINTAIN A 60 KTS INTENSITY BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN MAXIMUM 213 NM SPREAD IN TRACK SOLUTIONS BY TAU 72, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS LAID NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY GONI WILL TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND MAKE A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM SOUTH OF DA NANG PRIOR TO TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS AND AFTER LANDFALL WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO ADDITIONAL TERRAIN EFFECTS. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 35KTS. NAVGEM DIVERGES TO THE RIGHT OF THE MAIN CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODELS AND JGSM TO THE LEFT, THEREBY OFFSETTING EACH OTHER. IN VIEW OF THIS, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, WHICH IS LAID ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN