WDPN31 PGTW 310900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 014// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 383 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A COMPACT, DENSE, AND SYMMETRICAL SYSTEM WITH FEEDER BANDS TIGHTLY WRAPPED INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT HAS MAINTAINED A 5-NM SHARPLY-OUTLINED EYE. OUTSIDE THE PINHOLE EYE IS A CLOUD-FREE MOAT THAT SEPARATES IT FROM AN EVOLVING 30-NM SECONDARY EYEWALL, PRELUDE TO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE IN THE MSI LOOP THAT PERFECTLY LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 310521Z AMSR2 IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 155 KTS IS BASED ON CONGRUENT AGENCY AND ADT DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5/155KTS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AT 30-31C ARE VERY CONDUCIVE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHWEST. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. STY 22W WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK UP TO TAU 12; AFTERWARD, THE STR WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIVE THE SYSTEM ON A FLATTER WESTWARD TRAJECTORY, MAKE LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON JUST BEFORE TAU 24, TRACK OVER MANILA, AND EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) BEFORE TAU 36. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE IN THE NEAR TERM. HOWEVER, THE ANTICIPATED ERC WILL CAUSE A SLIGHT AND GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 130KTS BY TAU 24 - STILL AT SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL CAUSE SIGNIFICANT DECAY AND WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 85KTS WHEN IT EXITS INTO THE SCS. AFTER TAU 36, STY 22W WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TO 60KTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO INCREASING VWS (20-25KTS). NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM THE NOTABLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID JUST LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY NAVGEM SOLUTION DRIVING THE VORTEX INTO THE STR. C. BEYOND TAU 72, STY GONI WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD UNDER THE SAME STR, MAKING A SECONDARY AND FINAL LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM SOUTH OF DA NANG AROUND TAU 108. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DUE TO THE MODERATE VWS, AND AFTER LANDFALL, RAPID WEAKENING WITH THE ADDITION OF FRICTIONAL EFFECTS FROM THE TERRAIN. BY TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE REDUCED TO 45KTS. NAVGEM DIVERGES FURTHER RIGHT FROM THE TIGHT CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODELS. ALSO, SOME MEMBERS INCLUDING JGSM, AEMN, AND UEMN, SCATTER AND LOOP TO THE LEFT. IN VIEW OF THESE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CLUSTER.// NNNN