WDPN31 PGTW 301500 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 011 CORRECTED// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 580 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT BUT VERY POWERFUL SYSTEM WITH SHARPLY DEFINED 7 NM EYE CONTINUING TO CONTRACT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE VERY WELL DEFINED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN TO 155 KNOTS ALIGNED WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.5 (155 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES ARE A BIT LOWER AT T7.1, LIKELY DUE TO A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER EYE TEMPERATURES AND A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT ONE TO TWO DEG CELSIUS AROUND THE 1200Z HOUR. STY 22W HAS STARTED TO TRACK MORE SOUTHWESTWARD, WHILE FORWARD SPEED HAS SLOWED DOWN QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A TEMPORARY WEAKENING IN THE STEERING FLOW AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM SHIFTS TO THE STR LOCATED TO THE WEST OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IN THE REGION REMAINS HIGHLY FAVORABLE WITH VERY WARM (30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. THE STEERING PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WESTERN STR AS OF 1200Z, ALLOWING FOR STY 22W TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL RESUME A MORE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS THE STEERING RIDGE REORIENTS TO A MORE WEST-EAST ORIENTATION. STY 22W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON, NORTHEAST OF MANILA JUST BEFORE TAU 48 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE, THEN TRANSIT ACROSS LUZON AND INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 72. STY 22W HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, AS A 301014Z SSMIS 91 GHZ PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A POSSIBLE SECONDARY EYEWALL FORMING AROUND 50 NM OUT FROM THE INNER EYEWALL. THE CIMSS M-PERC MODEL IS ALSO PREDICTING A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY (>90%) OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HENCE, INTENSITY IS VERY LIKELY TO START TO DECREASE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS DUE TO THE PROBABLE ERC, BUT THEN WON?T HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO RECOVER AS VWS INCREASES, SSTS COOL AND OUTFLOW DEGRADES AS THE SYSTEM GETS CUT OFF FROM THE POLEWARD CHANNEL AND IS REDUCED TO A SINGLE CHANNEL EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THE SYSTEM IS THUS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 36 AND EVEN SLIGHTLY LOWER PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN, INCREASING VWS, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND COOLER SSTS WILL COMBINE TO DRAMATICALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER IT REEMERGES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON BY TAU 72. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, AND THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36, THEN NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST, MAKING ANOTHER LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL VIETNAM COAST NEAR TAU 120. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID- LEVEL AIR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THOUGH THERE IS SOME INCREASING CROSS AND ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120. OVERALL HOWEVER, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED MANOP HEADER WITH CORRECT DATE TIME GROUP.// NNNN