WDPN31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   SUPER TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 621 NM EAST OF 
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
VERY IMPRESSIVE, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A SHARP 9 NM EYE, WHICH HAS 
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 9 NM EYE IN THE 
MSI, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM A 300438Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE SHOWING VERY INTENSE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE VERY COMPACT 
CORE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AT 150 KNOTS 
BASED ON A PGTW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T7.5 (155 
KNOTS), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATE OF T6.8 (138 KNOTS), THOUGH THE RAW ADT ESTIMATE ALIGNS 
WITH THE PGTW ESTIMATE AT T7.5. STY 22W IS TRACKING GENERALLY A BIT 
SOUTH OF DUE WESTWARD, ALBEIT WITH SOME RECENT TROCHOIDAL MOTION 
ABOUT THE TRACK MADE GOOD, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. 
STY GONI CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
WITH VERY WARM (30-31 DEG CELSIUS), HIGH OHC WATERS, LOW (5-10 
KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL TAPPING INTO THE DIVERGENT QUADRANT OF A UPPER-LEVEL 
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, STY 22W IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING 
ON A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST 
BUILDS AND EXTENDS WESTWARD AND BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING 
MECHANISM. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 THE SYSTEM RESUMES A WESTERLY 
TRACK BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48. LANDFALL IS 
EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 60 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. STY 22W HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY, THOUGH THERE IS THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK BETWEEN TAU 0 AND TAU 12. BUT 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY INTENSITY AT TAU 12, WITH 
WEAKENING THEREAFTER, DUE TO THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A EYEWALL 
REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE LIKELY ERC 
WILL COMBINE WITH A STEADY INCREASE IN VWS AND LOSS OF THE POLEWARD 
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AFTER TAU 24 TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 125 KNOTS BY 
TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT ACROSS THE 
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF CENTRAL LUZON, REEMERGING INTO THE SOUTH 
CHINA SEA AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON OF 65 KNOTS AFTER WEAKENING 
SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF TERRAIN INTERACTION, 
INCREASED VWS AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE 
NORTHEAST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTH EDGE OF THE 
VERY TIGHT GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48 HIGH CONFIDENCE. 
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO THE WESTWARD IN ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD WEST-EAST ORIENTED STR TO THE 
NORTH. COOLER WATERS, ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE 
NORTHEAST AND MODERATE VWS WILL COMBINE TO STEADILY WEAKEN THE 
SYSTEM THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST 
WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 200 NM AT TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK IS 
PLACED NEAR JUST NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE.//
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