WDPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 
009//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 684 NM EAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE LAST SIX 
HOURS. ANIMATED VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY COMPACT 
SYSTEM WITH AN 11 NM EYE THAT HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS AFTER HAVING UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION THE 
SIX HOURS PRIOR.  THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 11 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH 
MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 125 KNOTS, ALIGNED WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. TY 22W IS TRACKING 
WESTWARD TRANSITIONING TO BEING STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE (STR) TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. TY GONI CONTINUES 
MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR 
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH VERY WARM (29-30 DEG CELSIUS) 
WATERS, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED AS IT TAPS INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS 
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 
THROUGH TAU 36 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTER 
LOCATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 THE SYSTEM 
RESUMES A WESTERLY TRACK BEFORE TURNING WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48. 
LANDFALL IS EXPECTED FOR CENTRAL LUZON AROUND TAU 60 AS A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE 
INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF WARM (30 
DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VWS, PEAKING AT 135 KNOTS 
AT TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 125 KNOTS BY 
TAU 48, DECREASING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 75 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AFTER 
MAKING LANDFALL AND TRANSITING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF 
CENTRAL LUZON. THE SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA 
JUST BEFORE TAU 72, ALBEIT AS A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED TYPHOON DUE 
TO COMBINED EFFECTS OF TERRAIN INTERACTION, SLIGHTLY INCREASED VWS 
AND ENTRAINMENT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE JTWC 
FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE AS ALL MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH TAU 36 AND 
REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH TAU 72. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE 
NOW INDICATES CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, BUT IS NOT FORECASTING THE 
EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO PERSIST. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES 
ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS THE MODELS CONTINUE 
TO HANDLE THIS COMPACT SYSTEM POORLY.    
C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN 
RESPONSE TO WEAKENING IN THE STR. THROUGH TAU 120, THE SYSTEM WILL 
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MODERATE VWS AND CONTINUED 
ENTRAINMENT OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN 
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A CROSS-
TRACK SPREAD OF 200 NM AT TAU 120, THE JTWC TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE 
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE. 
//
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