WDPN31 PGTW 292100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 008// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 724 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A 5 NM EYE THAT HAS UNDERGONE EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 5 NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AT 120 KNOTS, ALIGNED WITH THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW. FURTHERMORE, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT 22W WAS STRONGER (125 KNOTS) BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z BASED ON THE STRUCTURE DISPLAYED IN A 291645 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE AND AN UNOFFICIAL DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 6.5 FROM PGTW DURING THAT TIME. TY 22W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LARGE, DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). TY GONI CONTINUES MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION, WITH VERY WARM (29-30 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING ENHANCED AS IT TAPS INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR CENTER LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST, BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM WILL TURN ONTO A WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK. BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 72 THE SYSTEM RESUMES A WEST BECOMING SLIGHTLY WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK, WITH LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON EXPECTED AROUND TAU 68 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE. TY 22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF WARM (30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VWS, PEAKING AT 140 KNOTS AT TAU 24. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TO 125 KNOTS BY TAU 48, DECREASING MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TO 95 KNOTS AT TAU 72 AFTER MAKING LANDFALL ON LUZON AROUND TAU 68. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AS ALL MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY PACKED THROUGH TAU 48 (48NM SPREAD), WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM THAT IS TAKING THE TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH, RESULTING IN A 96NM SPREAD AT TAU 48. SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, BUT IS NOT FORECASTING THE EXTREME RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO PERSIST. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES ABOVE THE MAJORITY OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, CLOSE TO THE SHIPS SOLUTIONS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE AS THE SYSTEM IS VERY COMPACT AND INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING IT WELL.// NNNN