WDPN31 PGTW 290900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 
006//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 865 NM EAST OF MANILA, 
PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A 
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING AND WRAPPING 
INTO AN INCREASINGLY WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
WHILE AN EYE HAS YET TO DEVELOP IN THE VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY, A 
PERSISTENT AND WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IS EVIDENT IN BOTH THE 36 
GHZ AND 89 GHZ BANDS IN A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AT 290330Z, 
290356Z AND 290640Z, WHICH LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL 
POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY 
HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 
KNOTS), BASED PRIMARILY ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 
T4.4 (75 KNOTS), AND AN AMSR2-BASED WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 66 KNOTS AT 
250356Z, INDICATING THE SYSTEM HAD ALREADY REACHED TYPHOON STRENGTH A 
COUPLE OF HOURS PRIOR TO THE 0600Z HOUR. TY 22W HAS TRACKED JUST A BIT 
NORTH OF DUE WEST OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS 
THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE STR TO THE NORTH, DRAWING THE SYSTEM IN A 
BIT. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH VERY WARM (30-31 DEG CELSIUS) WATERS WITH 
HIGH OHC VALUES (GREATER THAN 150), LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS AND ROBUST 
RADIAL OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE WHICH LIES VERY NEARLY 
OVERHEAD THE LLCC, AND A DEVELOPING TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW 
CHANNEL DUE TO THE COL AREA NOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED ONCE AGAIN DUE TO 
INCREASES IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID 
INTENSIFICATION.
   B. TY 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK JUST SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST 
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE PRIMARY 
STEERING MECHANISM SWITCHES TO THE STR CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. 
TY 22W WILL TRANSIT THROUGH AN AREA OF VERY WARM (31 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS 
AND VERY HIGH (GREATER THAN 150) OHC, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH THE 
ROBUST DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND VERY LOW (5 KNOTS OR LESS) VWS, WILL 
ALLOW FOR EXTREMELY RAPID INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY 
OF AT LEAST 130 KNOTS BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE 
MAJOR OUTLIER KEEPING THE SYSTEM ON A FLATTER TRAJECTORY TOWARDS 
NORTHERN LUZON THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CONSENSUS MEMBERS HAVE A TIGHT ENVELOPE WITH AN 85 NM SPREAD AT TAU 
72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE 
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 72 IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT WEST-NORTHWEST 
MOTION, WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS INDICATING 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION PROBABILITIES THAT ARE RARELY SEEN, WITH VALUES 
STRONGLY SUPPORTING RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF 40 KNOTS OR MORE WITHIN 
36 HOURS. 
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TURN TOWARDS THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR, WITH LANDFALL 
IN CENTRAL LUZON EXPECTED AROUND TAU 84 AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE. AFTER REACHING A PEAK OF 130 KNOTS, VWS QUICKLY INCREASES TO 
GREATER THAN 20-25 KNOTS AFTER TAU 72 LEADING TO AN INITIALLY SLOW 
WEAKENING TREND, WHICH THEN INCREASES AFTER LANDFALL. BY TAU 96, THE 
SYSTEM WILL REEMERGE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A MUCH WEAKENED 
SYSTEM DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF TERRAIN INTERACTION, MODERATE TO 
HIGH VWS AND DECREASING SSTS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD 
OVERALL AGREEMENT THOUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A CROSS-TRACK 
SPREAD OF 105 NM AT TAU 120. HOWEVER, THE MODELS SHOW INCREASING 
ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AFTER TAU 72, WITH A 420 NM ALONG-TRACK SPREAD 
BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF AT TAU 120, WITH THE ECMWF BEING MUCH SLOWER 
THAN THE MAJORITY OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS AND GFS BEING MUCH FASTER. 
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE 
ENVELOPE, SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE 
TO THE INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SPREAD.//
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