WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI) WARNING NR 
005//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TROPICAL STORM 22W (GONI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 909 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CLEARLY DEFINED WITH A PERSISTENT 
MICROWAVE EYE EVIDENT IN A 290049Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE 
IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, WITH THE ASSUMPTION THAT 
DVORAK ESTIMATES (T3.5 FROM PGTW, T3.0 FROM KNES, AND T2.5 FROM 
RJTD) ARE STILL LAGGING BEHIND DUE TO THE SMALLER SIZE OF THE 
SYSTEM. TS 22W CONTINUES TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER WARM (30C) 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND UNDER LOW 
(5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASED FOR THE ENTIRE 
PERIOD DUE TO INCREASES IN INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF 
RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
   B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD, WITH A GRADUAL TURN 
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE STR BUILDS TO THE NORTH. 
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF 
THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND TS 22W IS ALSO FORECAST TO TRACK OVER EVEN 
WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (OVER 31C) THROUGH TAU 72. DURING 
THIS PERIOD, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR, AND A PEAK 
INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 120 KNOTS IS FORECAST TO BE REACHED BY AROUND 
TAU 72.
   C. BEYOND TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST 
IN RESPONSE TO A SLIGHT WEAKENING IN THE STR, WITH LANDFALL IN 
CENTRAL LUZON EXPECTED. WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS TS 22W 
INTERACTS WITH THE COMPLEX TERRAIN OF LUZON PRIOR TO EXITING INTO 
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT 
AGREEMENT, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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