WDPN31 PGTW 281500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNING NR 003// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1030 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION, ALBEIT WITH MINIMAL RAIN BANDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON LOW CLOUD TRACING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) IN THE MSI LOOP THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A NOTCH FEATURE IN THE 2800859Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35KTS IS BASED ON THE HIGH END OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5/25KTS TO T2.5/35KTS, AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM A RECENT SATCON ESTIMATE OF 32KTS AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LAST 6HRS. TS 22W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH OVER WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND UNDER LOW (5-10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW. A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TS 22W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12, THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, AND BY TAU 72, WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 345NM EAST OF MANILA. THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION UP TO TAU 48, THEN RAPID INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 105KTS BY TAU 72 AS IT DRIFTS OVER A WARMER (31C+ SST) POOL OF WATER IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS SLIGHTLY WITH THE APPROACH OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL LUZON, PHILIPPINES, AROUND TAU 102, THEN EXIT INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 108. INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN IN ADDITION TO INCREASED VWS (20KTS), WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING DOWN TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM THE SOLE RIGHT-OF-TRACK OUTLIER, LENDING AN OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL PORTIONS OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS LAID SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN