WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT WRAP 
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL 
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE VI EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH
A MICROWAVE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 272114Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS 
HEDGED BELOW A PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KTS)
BASED ON A 272249Z CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 95 KTS, AS WELL AS THE WEAKENING TREND IN RECENT ADVANCE 
DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. TY MOLAVE IS TRACKING ALONG 
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND 
STRONG EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY STRONG (25+ KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE COAST OF CENTRAL 
VIETNAM, IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH 
(25 KTS+) VWS. BY TAU 12, TY MOLAVE WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF DA 
NANG, VIETNAM AND BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS 
AND INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THIS WEAKENING TREND 
WILL RESULT IN AN INTENSITY OF 50 KTS AT TAU 12 THAT WILL FURTHER 
DROP TO 30 KTS AT TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS DISSIPATION OVER LAND. BY TAU 
36 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND. NUMERICAL 
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH 
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY 
NORTH OF THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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