WDPN32 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS PEAKED AND BEGAN TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND THE PARTIAL EROSION OF THE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY ERODED, ALBEIT DEFINED EYE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 271053Z SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF MULTI-AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE WEAKENING DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS TO T6.0/115KTS. THE SYSTEM IS UNDER A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND STRONG EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT THAT ARE OFFSET BY MODERATE TO STRONG (25- 30KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 21W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY MOLAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM, APPROXIMATELY 100NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE STRONG VWS AND COOLER SSTS WILL LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 85KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL, THE ADDED INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM, LAOS, AND INTO THAILAND, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 36, OR SOONER. NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.// NNNN