WDPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 
013//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION
WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
THE TRANSIENT EYE FEATURE HAS CONTINUED TO CYCLE AND HAS FILLED
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH 
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT IN A 
262302Z AMSU 89 GHZ. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KTS IS ALSO 
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED BETWEEN MULTI-AGENCY 
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 (102 KTS, PGTW AND 
KNES) AND T5.0 (90 KTS, RJTD) AND A 262300Z CIMSS SATELLITE 
CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 96 KTS. TY MOLAVE CONTINUES TO 
TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) 
POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND WELL ESTABLISHED 
EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY MODERATE
(20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY MOLAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER 
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. 
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AN INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS OVER 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS, LARGELY DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE SSTS AND
LOW (10-15) VWS OFFSET THAT REMAINS OFFSET BY CONTINUED UPPER 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. 
AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS AND COOLER SSTS WILL LEAD TO A 
GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 95 KTS BY TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36, 
TY MOLAVE WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM AND BEGIN 
TO DISSIPATE OVER LAND DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING 
TERRAIN. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO 55 KTS AND CONTINUE 
THIS WEAKENING TREND TO 25 KTS BY TAU 48, UPON WHICH TIME IT WILL 
COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS 
IN TIGHT AGREEMENT FOR THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 
MAXIMUM SPREAD IN MODEL TRACKS OF 70 NM BY TAU 48. THIS TIGHT 
AGREEMENT IN NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE 
JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE JTWC MULTI-MODEL 
CONSENSUS.//
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