WDPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 
010//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED AFTER PASSAGE OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF MINDORO, WITH THE CONVECTIVE CORE SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENED AND DEGRADED. A 260503Z AMSR2 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, AND A 260556Z LOW RESOLUTION ATMS 16.5 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE BOTH SHOWED WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURES, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), INDICATING THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CORE, WHILE WEAKENED, IS QUICKLY REFORMING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 80 KTS BASED ON THE LOWER END, DUE TO THE RECENT TERRAIN INTERACTION AND ATTENDANT DISRUPTION OF THE CORE, OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 TO 5.0 FROM RJTD AND PGTW RESPECTIVELY, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.9 (88 KTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 86 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TY 21W LIES IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE REGION WITH ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. TY 21W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. NOW THAT THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARED MINDORO ISLAND, AND BEGINS TO TAP INTO UNDISTURBED WARM WATERS, A RESUMPTION OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING A PEAK OF 95 KNOTS BY TAU 24 AS THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN SHIFTS SLIGHTLY LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN DIVERGENCE OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY INTENSIFICATION EVEN THOUGH SSTS ARE COOLING TO LESS THAN 28 DEG CELSIUS AND VWS IS INCREASING AT THE SAME TIME. THE 25/18Z COAMPS-TC RUN CONTINUES TO REFLECT A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS OR LESS, WITH A SMALL CHANCE OF A PEAK ABOVE 100 KNOTS AROUND TAU 36. TY 21W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AROUND JUST BEFORE TAU 48 SOUTH OF DA NANG, VIETNAM AND WILL CONTINUE INLAND TO NORTHEAST THAILAND BY TAU 72, WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A 35NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24, INCREASING TO 95NM AT TAU 48 JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 36 THEN NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FROM TAU 48 TO 72 WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.      
   C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TY 21W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND EXPECTED BY TAU 96 NEAR THE THAILAND-MYANMAR BORDER REGION. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM WHICH REMAINS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 96, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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