WDPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS 
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND ANIMATED RADAR IMAGERY SHOW TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LENDING 
FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. A 251321Z AMSU 89GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH 
BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED 
AS 65 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. TY 21W IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN 
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. IN THE NEAR TERM, TY 21W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY AS 
IT TRACKS WESTWARD OVER THE INNER SEAS SOUTH OF LUZON. THE 
AFOREMENTIONED STR WILL REMAIN AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER THE SYSTEM RE-EMERGES OVER THE 
SOUTH CHINA SEA NEAR TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RE-INTENSITY 
DUE TO PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 
85 KTS BY TAU 48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS THE COAST. FOLLOWING LANDFALL AFTER TAU 
60, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES OVER 
CENTRAL VIETNAM. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 
72 WITH A 113 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 60. THEREFORE, THERE IS 
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
   C. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, TY 21W WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS 
WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WITH DISSIPATION OVER LAND 
EXPECTED BY TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM (A SOUTHERLY 
OUTLIER), NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 120, 
LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS 
PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.//
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