WDPN31 PGTW 240300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNING NR 
021A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. 
   TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 278 NM SOUTH 
OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY 
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE 
NORTHWEST UNDER MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE 
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW FIX AND SUPPORTED BY A 232241Z 
SSMIS 37 GHZ PARTIAL PASS WITH AN ILL DEFINED CENTER. THE INTENSITY 
IS LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS, WHICH IS ON THE LOW END OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK 
FIXES ACCOUNTING FOR 50-55 KNOT SATCON AND 45 KNOT ADT ESTIMATES 
WHICH REFLECT A STRONG WEAKENING TREND DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE 
VWS. TS 19W IS TRACKING STEADILY WESTWARD AS SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING 
(STR) TO THE NORTH IS BUILDING.  WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-
29C) REMAINS IN PLACE, BUT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS DEGRADED, FURTHER 
ADDING TO THE WEAKENING TREND. 
3. FORECAST REASONING.
   A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE 
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
   B. TS 19W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE STEADILY WESTWARD TO WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR 
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. STEADY WEAKENING SHOULD PERSIST 
AS NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM. 
LANDFALL OVER CENTRAL VIETNAM IS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 36, WITH 
DISSIPATION OVER LAND EXPECTED BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE 
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO, AND 
THE MODEL TRACK FORECAST CONSENSUS HAS BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST 
SEVERAL RUNS. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT 
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED STORM STATE TO TROPICAL 
STORM. ADDED PARA. 3 HEADER.//
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