ALERT ATCF MIL 94X XXX 220914120000 2022091412 16.1 251.2 15.0 254.3 70 16.0 251.4 141600 2209141600 1 SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// WTPN21 PHNC 141600 RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 070 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.1N 108.8W TO 15.0N 105.7W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 19 TO 24 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 141600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.6W. THE SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONARY AT 00 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 19 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 151600Z. // 9422091118 158N1049W 20 9422091200 158N1056W 20 9422091206 158N1062W 25 9422091212 158N1068W 25 9422091218 158N1075W 25 9422091300 158N1083W 25 9422091306 156N1082W 25 9422091312 159N1081W 20 9422091318 160N1085W 20 9422091400 160N1086W 20 9422091406 160N1086W 20 9422091412 160N1086W 20 NNNN